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Well. From one perspective, the nation's long-running campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to host the largest global environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have brought tens of thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

The result will be a significant disappointment to many people who had believed organizing the climate carnival could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the bid to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to reports in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times outright opposed.

There is little sign Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a priority. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to look at it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the UN climate process. This framework is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to encourage them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the Australian bid.

However, exceptionally, Ankara declined to withdraw. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not just by Australians.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the oil producers that offered the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered aligned with Vladimir Putin. Several nations worried about a conference obstructed from the top if his government managed the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was necessary. The UN system is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the battle with global heating. This joint approach is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Despite understandable criticism of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing carbon-based exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to lead negotiation streams at multiple summits he has participated in.

This matters. While some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", specialists from research centers and veteran observers at environmental negotiations say it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unanswered questions. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the best chance possible to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.