Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
