Keir Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.

Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process

Multiple figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to avoid any potential leadership challenge.

The party apparatus is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.