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Only two days before the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange made a significant forecast – not just who would win overall, but block by block. The analyst, an expert in elections who grew up in the city, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and has become a kind of local celebrity this year for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He published his highly detailed forecast map – accurately predicting that the progressive candidate was victorious although failed to predict the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his newsletter, his platform. He has a flair for clever terms. He pointed out, for instance, the divide between the “commie corridor”, running from one neighborhood to Bushwick to Astoria, where he forecasted (correctly) that Mamdani would win by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, certain media outlets and financial newspapers surpass the mainstream paper” in audience and most voters leaned toward Cuomo, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Trends and Surprises

How was your election night?

I had to do that because they were adding approximately 200K ballots into the system frequently! I felt somewhat anxious initially: The candidate was ahead the initial ballots by 12 points, but there were two big batches of ballots that came in later and the advantage dropped from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, there was a world where yesterday turned out kind of poorly for him, in which Cuomo would have basically increasing his support from the earlier contest. However the winner added 500,000 supporters to his initial base, and this was critical why he succeeded. He went out and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Coalition Building

How did the mayor-elect gain those extra votes from?

He built the coalition that progressives long aimed for: diverse racially, it’s young, tenants and individuals squeezed by affordability. He improved considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the primary. Additionally he boosted his base of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He created the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: multiracial, young, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability

There were also a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Electors in ethnic enclaves that supported Trump last year went for Zohran this year. But it’s not that he was gaining white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Effects

One of the big stories of the night was the sky-high participation. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was much greater than I had expected. I figured we might exceed two million, but it reached 2.3 million – that is a lot of darn voters. Existed a substantial opposition group, who were motivated, but his supporters was also motivated, and that was enough to secure victory.

You predicted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Right now you would say he’s favored to get over 50%. He’s at 50.4% but remain around 200,000 votes uncounted at that time. So I don’t think certain, but I believe probable, and I wish he achieves it so then no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote plummeted.

He lost any district in any borough. Not even Tottenville in the borough, which is like an highly conservative neighborhood. That really surprised me. Cuomo held very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these Republicans on Staten Island who had a high participation. I think there was a lot of strategic balloting by the Republicans. They were doing it prior to Trump tweeted his support for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome if Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your often-discussed “commie corridor” – was support for the candidate dominant in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think there was a little dilution of the progressive zone in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, instance, the Greek landlords and homeowners all went for Cuomo. So there existed a little resistance. But overall, largely the leftist base is a key factor why Mamdani won – he scored between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

Prior to the election there was coverage on if Mamdani was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he did?

Exist neighborhoods with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. However in the affluent districts like the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance definitely mattered there. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they favored Cuomo. Plus, you have Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, who were pretty staunchly Cuomo. So I don’t know if there were major surprises on this one, but he retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the another locale by big margins.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city represents in politics? Will the progressive base serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest political leaders from the left come from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I’m sure that there will be more of that – people will emerge from these areas to be elevated nationally.

However I believe that each urban center in America can have similar progressive hubs. Cities are the centers of leftwing power in the nation – since they’re young, tenancy is common and they are places where individuals struggle by the disparities we face.